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2024-12-13 04:42:43

ADB lowered the growth forecast of developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region to maintain China's economic growth forecast. On December 11th, the Asian Development Bank issued the Asia Development Outlook 2024 (December Edition). According to the report, the development momentum in the Asia-Pacific region is steady, but as US President-elect Trump is about to take office, changes in his trade, finance and immigration policies may inhibit the development of the Asia-Pacific region and aggravate inflation. ADB lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region from the previous 5.0% to 4.9% in 2024, and from the previous 4.9% to 4.8% in 2025. China's economic growth is expected to remain at 4.8% and 4.5% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, which is the same as before.Lian Ping, president of the Chief Industry Research Institute of Guangkai, believes that it is expected to reduce the RRR by about 100 basis points in 2025, releasing more than 3 trillion yuan of liquidity. Among them, there is limited room for reducing the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and the expected RRR reduction is about 50 basis points.New World Development sold Artisan Lab in Kowloon, Hong Kong for HK$ 620 million. Sing Tao Daily quoted an unnamed insider as saying that New World Development sold Artisan Lab in San Po Kong, Kowloon for HK$ 620 million. This 22-storey building was completed in 2022, with a floor area of about 120,000 square feet.


CITIC Securities: In 2025, the performance boom cycle of the US Internet sector is expected to continue. According to CITIC Securities Research Report, looking forward to 2025, the macro resilience will continue, and the superimposed GenAI technology will continue to be introduced. The performance boom cycle of the US Internet sector is expected to continue, which is reflected in online advertising, e-commerce, streaming media, local life, financial technology and other sectors. However, the Trump administration's tariff increase & industry regulatory policies, inflation data, AI technology progress, etc. are expected to be continuous disturbance variables and need to be closely watched. At the level of individual stocks, the first-line Internet giants will still be the basic allocation. At the same time, we suggest that investors appropriately increase the allocation of small and medium-sized stocks in the fields of advertising technology and financial technology to enhance portfolio flexibility.The reporter explored: optimizing the transaction structure, the second-hand housing has become a hot spot in the market. "After the recent new property market policy, especially the reduction of transaction tax burden such as value-added tax, the second-hand housing is particularly popular." A senior real estate agent manager in Jindaotian District, Luohu District, Shenzhen, told the reporter, "Take several shed-reformed communities here as an example. Recently, more than 20 second-hand houses can be sold in each community every month. The price is low, the house is new and the location belongs to the urban area, which is very suitable for those who just need to buy a home." According to the data of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, the unit price of second-hand houses in the range of 40,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan accounted for 32.1% in November, ranking first and the increase was the most obvious. The transaction of new houses with a "building age" of less than 10 years was the most active. The reporter found out that in the second-hand housing market in several key cities, the transactions of new second-hand houses with relatively new "building age" are more active. Take Tianhe Park, a plate with high popularity of second-hand houses in Guangzhou, as an example. According to shell data, 41 sets were sold in this plate in October, a significant increase of 127.8% from the previous month. According to Yan Yuejin, vice president of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, the adjustment of tax policy will accelerate the listing of second-hand houses and good houses, which in turn will help buyers subscribe for second-hand houses and large-sized houses, which will have a positive effect on optimizing the transaction structure of second-hand houses and boosting second-hand housing transactions. (e company)Goldman Sachs: I don't agree that gold can't reach $3,000 under a strong dollar. Goldman Sachs said that we don't agree with the view that the price of gold can't rise to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025 when the dollar remains strong for a long time. We predict that gold will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, and the reduction of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (rather than the strengthening of the US dollar) is the downside risk of this prediction.


CITIC Securities: The logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, in November, China's exports maintained a certain growth rate, exports to emerging markets maintained a high growth rate, and exports of mechanical and electrical products performed brilliantly. In the short term, both CCFI index and SCFI index are on the rise, and the logic of "grabbing exports" is expected to support the short-term performance of China's exports. In the long run, if the United States imposes tariffs on China, China's export performance may be dragged down. However, based on the analysis of the import share structure of the United States, the European Union, Vietnam, Mexico and other economies, we can see that the current pattern of China's trade diversification has improved compared with the last round of Sino-US trade friction, and the trade between emerging markets and China has become closer and closer. The imposition of tariffs by the United States on China may affect the bilateral trade between China and the United States more, and domestic enterprises going to sea and re-exporting trade may still be effective ways to hedge the impact of US tariffs on China.AI can solve partial differential equations thousands of times faster than before, and partial differential equations play an important role in engineering and science. In a recent study, scientists from Johns Hopkins University in the United States have developed a new artificial intelligence (AI) model called "Differential Mapping Operator Learning" (DIMON), which can solve complex partial differential equations on personal computers, thousands of times faster than before, and is expected to "show its talents" in the fields of aerospace, automobiles and medicine. Related papers were published in the journal Nature Computational Science published on the 9th.Ministry of Finance of Korea: Korea's financial market is still facing uncertainty.

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